Anthropic Economists Rework AI Job Impact Measurement: 'Observed Exposure' Shows Minimal Labor Disruption So Far

Anthropic economists Maxim Massenkoff and Peter McCrory have developed a new metric — "observed exposure" — to measure AI's actual impact on jobs. Their finding: despite CEO Dario Amodei's prediction that AI could displace half of entry-level white-collar jobs, the actual labor market impact has been minimal.

The New Metric

Observed exposure measures how AI is actually being used in practice, rather than how it could theoretically be used. This is meant to address the gap between AI hype and AI reality.

The Findings

• No systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022
• Suggestive evidence that hiring of younger workers has slowed in exposed occupations
• Average unemployment gap between exposed and insulated workers: essentially zero since ChatGPT's release
• Danish study (2025): No effect on jobs or wages from generative AI

Amodei's Prediction vs Reality

CEO Dario Amodei (January 2026): "AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1-5 years... AI will be able to do everything."

His own economists' findings: The track record of AI labor impact forecasting "gives reason for humility."

Future Outlook

Anthropic's researchers expect exposed occupations to grow more slowly through 2034, with the most affected roles being those filled by older, female, more educated, and higher-paid workers. But "we're not there yet."

Notable Caveats

• Jack Dorsey cut ~4,000 Block employees (40%) citing AI — but earnings miss suggests other factors
• AI can reformulate and relicense software, disrupting software economics
• The study measures current impact, not future trajectory

Source: The Register, Anthropic Research