Citrini Research Finds 50% Underreporting of Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic

Independent research firm Citrini has conducted a field investigation of the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of global oil supply passes — and concluded that publicly available shipping data significantly underreports actual traffic volume, potentially by as much as 50%.

Methodology

Citrini's team conducted on-site observation and analysis of shipping movements through the strait, comparing their findings with publicly available AIS (Automatic Identification System) data and commercial shipping trackers.

Key Findings

The research suggests that:

1. Significant underreporting — Public data sources may be missing up to 50% of actual vessel transits
2. Data gaps — AIS transponders can be turned off, and some vessel classes are not consistently tracked
3. Strategic implications — The true volume of traffic through this critical chokepoint may be substantially higher than commonly understood

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical energy chokepoint:

• Approximately 20-21 million barrels of crude oil pass through daily
• Any closure would cause catastrophic oil price spikes
• Both Iran and the U.S. have military capabilities to disrupt or protect shipping

With the current U.S.-Iran tensions reaching a critical point — Trump has set an April 7 deadline and warned of military action — accurate traffic data becomes strategically essential for:

• Energy market risk assessment
• Insurance pricing for commercial shipping
• Military planning and force disposition
• Diplomatic negotiations

Implications

If Citrini's findings are accurate, the implications extend beyond energy markets:

1. Risk underpricing — Global markets may be systematically underestimating disruption risk at Hormuz
2. Insurance gaps — Shipping insurance may be underpriced relative to actual exposure
3. Military intelligence — Public shipping data may be insufficient for strategic planning
4. Transparency calls — The research strengthens arguments for mandatory, comprehensive vessel tracking