Solar and Batteries Can Power 90% of Electricity for 80% of World Population at Under 80 EUR/MWh by 2030
A comprehensive new analysis by energy researcher Tom Brown demonstrates that solar and batteries alone can supply 90% of electricity for 80% of the world's population at costs below €80/MWh using 2030 cost projections.
Key Findings
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Solar+battery coverage | 90% of electricity |
| Population covered | 80% of world |
| Max cost | €80/MWh (2030 projections) |
| Backup needed | Storeable fuel for remaining 10% |
The Model
- Based on model.energy framework
- Solar PV installed cost: 384 €/kWp (2030)
- Li-ion battery installed cost: 157 €/kWh (2030)
- Cost of capital: 5%
- Backup generator (50% efficiency): 1,000 €/kWel
- 1°×1° grid pixels based on population density
Regional Variation
- Tropical/subtropical regions: Cheapest, abundant sunshine year-round
- Temperate zones: Viable with seasonal variations
- High-latitude northern regions: More expensive due to low winter sunshine; wind and hydro help
2050 Projections
With projected cost reductions:
- 86% of population below €60/MWh for 90% solar+battery
- 93% below €80/MWh for 95% coverage
Why This Matters
The analysis challenges the common narrative that renewables need massive grid overbuild or that the "last mile" of decarbonization requires breakthrough storage technology. Instead, it suggests that solar+battery systems with minimal fuel backup can get us very far — and the economics improve every year as costs decline.
The pragmatic takeaway: we don't need to solve the last 5-10% to make enormous progress. Short-term fossil backup, maturing long-duration storage, or e-biofuels can handle the remainder.